Un-burnable oil: an examination of oil resource utilisation in a decarbonised energy system

This paper examines the volumes of oil that can and cannot be used up to 2035 during the transition to a low-carbon global energy system using the global energy systems model, TIAM-UCL and the 'Bottom up Economic and Geological Oil field production model' (BUEGO). Globally in a scenario allowing the widespread adoption of carbon capture and storage (CCS) nearly 500 billion barrels of existing 2P oil reserves must remain unused by 2035. In a scenario where CCS is unavailable this increases to around 600 billion barrels. Besides reserves, arctic oil and light tight oil play only minor roles in a scenario with CCS and essentially no role when CCS is not available. On a global scale, 40% of those resources yet to be found in deepwater regions must remain undeveloped, rising to 55% if CCS cannot be deployed. The widespread development of unconventional oil resources is also shown to be incompatible with a decarbonised energy system even with a total and rapid decarbonisation of energetic inputs. The work thus demonstrates the extent to which current energy policies encouraging the unabated exploration for, and exploitation of, all oil resources are incommensurate with the achievement of a low-carbon energy system. © 2013 The Authors

Uncertainty in the availability of natural resources: Fossil fuels, critical metals and biomass

Energy policies are strongly influenced by resource availability and recoverability estimates. Yet these estimates are often highly uncertain, frequently incommensurable, and regularly contested. This paper explores how the uncertainties surrounding estimates of the availability of fossil fuels, biomass and critical metals are conceptualised and communicated. The contention is that a better understanding of the uncertainties surrounding resource estimates for both conventional and renewable energy resources can contribute to more effective policy decision making in the long term. Two complementary approaches for framing uncertainty are considered in detail: a descriptive typology of uncertainties and a framework that conceptualises uncertainty as alternative states of incomplete knowledge. Both have the potential to be useful analytical and communication tools. For the three resource types considered here we find that data limitations, inconsistent definitions and the use of incommensurable methodologies present a pervasive problem that impedes comparison. Many aspects of resource uncertainty are also not commonly captured in the conventional resource classification schemes. This highlights the need for considerable care when developing and comparing aggregate resource estimates and when using these to inform strategic energy policy decisions

A framework to evaluate hydrogen as fuel in international shipping

The shipping industry is today challenged by tighter regulations on efficiency, air pollution and the need to reduce its greenhouse gas emissions. The decarbonisation of the global energy system could be achieved with the use of alternative energy and fuels, and so a widespread switch to the adoption of alternative fuel in shipping could be experienced within the coming decades. Lately, many scenarios of alternative fuels in shipping have been investigated. Among the options of alternative fuels with different propulsion technologies, hydrogen with marine fuel cells (FCs) represent an example of such an alternative fuel. This paper proposes a framework to examine a possible transition path for the use of hydrogen in shipping within the context of decarbonisation of the wider global energy system. The framework is based on a soft- linking the global integrated assessment model (TIAM-UCL) and the shipping model (GloTraM). Initial results from this work-in-progress describe the trajectories of hydrogen prices, the characteristic of the hydrogen fleet and the consequences for shipping CO2 emissions, the hydrogen infrastructure requirements, the use of hydrogen in other sectors, and the consequences for global energy system CO2 emissions

Slow equivariant lump dynamics on the two sphere

The low-energy, rotationally equivariant dynamics of n CP^1 lumps on S^2 is studied within the approximation of geodesic motion in the moduli space of static solutions. The volume and curvature properties of this moduli space are computed. By lifting the geodesic flow to the completion of an n-fold cover of the moduli space, a good understanding of nearly singular lump dynamics within this approximation is obtained.Comment: 12 pages, 3 figure

Emissions budgets for shipping in a 2°C and a 4°C global warming scenario, and implications for operational efficiency

To achieve the widely accepted goal of keeping global temperature rise below 2°C above pre-industrial levels, greenhouse gas emissions must reduce drastically over the coming decades. Under this premise, the assumption that the shipping industry realises the same proportionate CO2 emission reductions as all other sectors on average has strong implications. This paper begins by considering an appropriate global CO2 emissions budget associated with a temperature rise of 2°C. Next, a range of future demand scenarios for international transport shipping are presented. Meeting the demand in any of the scenarios, while remaining within the emissions budget, requires stringent increases in overall operational efficiency. Different emissions and efficiency trajectories – with efficiency expressed in terms of the Energy Efficiency Operational Indicator (EEOI) – in line with the 2°C target are analysed. The potential short and long term levers of operational efficiency are explored

CO2 Targets, Trajectories and Trends for International Shipping

The Shipping in Changing Climates (SCC) project connects the latest climate change science with knowledge, understanding and models of the shipping sector in a whole systems approach. It seeks to explore the potential to cut CO2 through the use of technical and operational changes in shipping and to understand how the sector might transition to a more resilient and low-carbon future; it also seeks to explore different climate change scenarios and related food and fuel security issues to gain an understanding of the direct and indirect impacts of climate change on the shipping sector. These scenarios can be used to build evidence and understanding around the range of potential future directions that the shipping industry may take. The RCUK Energy funded project brings together researchers from UCL (Energy Institute, Mechanical Engineering and Laws), Manchester, Southampton, Newcastle and Strathclyde, in close collaboration with a core industry stakeholder group of Shell, Lloyd’s Register, Rolls Royce, BMT and Maritime Strategies International, but drawing on the expertise and connections of over 35 companies and organisations worldwide. This paper is non-peer- reviewed and represents the collective opinions of the authors and should not be assumed to represent the views of all the researchers across the project or the project’s industry partners and their organisations

Divestment prevails over the green paradox when anticipating strong future climate policies

Fossil fuel market dynamics will have a significant impact on the effectiveness of climate policies1. Both fossil fuel owners and investors in fossil fuel infrastructure are sensitive to climate policies that threaten their natural resource endowments and production capacities2,3,4, which will consequently affect their near-term behaviour. Although weak in near-term policy commitments5,6, the Paris Agreement on climate7 signalled strong ambitions in climate change stabilization. Many studies emphasize that the 2 °C target can still be achieved even if strong climate policies are delayed until 20308,9,10. However, sudden implementation will have severe consequences for fossil fuel markets and beyond and these studies ignore the anticipation effects of owners and investors. Here we use two energy–economy models to study the collective influence of the two central but opposing anticipation arguments, the green paradox11 and the divestment effect12, which have, to date, been discussed only separately. For a wide range of future climate policies, we find that anticipation effects, on balance, reduce CO2 emissions during the implementation lag. This is because of strong divestment in coal power plants starting ten years ahead of policy implementation. The green paradox effect is identified, but is small under reasonable assumptions